Asthma and lower airway diseasePredicting future risk of asthma exacerbations using individual conditional probabilities
Section snippets
Methods
The following represents a summarized version of the methodology. Detailed methods can be found in this article’s Online Repository at www.jacionline.org.
Results
Subjects’ demographics and baseline characteristics can be found in Table II. In summary, 35 of 78 patients in study A (with severe persistent asthma uncontrolled by high-dose inhaled [± oral] corticosteroid and long-acting β2-agonist treatment) and 34 of 61 patients in study B (with uncontrolled asthma and not necessarily taking any inhaled corticosteroids at entry [maximum dose, 1200 μg/d]) had sufficient data for analysis satisfying the quality control criterion.
The mean ± SD number of
Summary of results
We found good association between our novel method (ICP) of quantifying individual risk of future exacerbation and the number of actual events of a decrease in PEF based on data from 2 different populations of asthmatic patients studied by using 2 different time windows of observation and 2 different thresholds for defining a PEF decrease. The probabilities calculated by using this method were also well associated with whether future decreases in PEF and clinically defined exacerbations
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C.T. was funded by a Allen & Hanburys/Thoracic Society of Australia and New Zealand Respiratory Research Fellowship. R.A.W. and S.F. are employed by Johnson & Johnson. Centocor R&D, a fully-owned subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson, is the owner of the dataset of study A, whereas AstraZeneca Pty Ltd is the owner of the dataset study B. R.A.W. and S.F. assisted with interpretation of the original datasets but did not influence the aims and analyses of this study.
Disclosure of potential conflict of interest: P. Chanez has consultant arrangements with AstraZeneca and Centocor, and receives grant support from Centocor. S. E. Wenzel has had consultant arrangements with Centocor and has received research support from Centocor. H. K. Reddel has participated on advisory boards for, received speaker's honoraria, and received research funding from AstraZeneca. The rest of the authors have declared that they have no conflict of interest.